The theory of the morons
In a comment in this entry, BongV said:
Using the same sampling base, considering that he went from 60% approval in October (SWS) to 44% approval in October (Pulse Asia) – that’s a 16% reduction in 2 months. With 6 months to go, as the campaign becomes more issues-oriented – under the worst case scenario (decrease of 16% every 2 months) –
September 2009 – 60%
November 2009 – 44%
Jan 2010 – 28%
Mar 2010 -12%
This is what happens when you try to bluff people by using words like sampling base or worst case scenario, like this is one big case study only to find out how elementary and logically hungry the analysis was. Nah, I don’t want to say personal things in here but I can’t help describing this as the Theory of the Morons. Let’s take this bloody statistical theory of BongV and see what happens, shall we people?
The last survey indicated that Noynoy was up at 60%. The latest put him at 44%. This was how it looked like:
Did you notice that Villar has 18% decrease, higher than Noynoy’s??? In effect, according to our scientist, Noynoy will have a survey ratings of 12% come March 2010. Well, let’s apply the same theory to Villar, shall we amigos?
Here’s how it would look like.
Do you know what that means?!
That means, that by March 2010, Villar should just get out of the Presidential race because he would have a negative… A NEGATIVE survey ratings of 17%!!!
Huh! Get outta here!!!
Aquino still comes out on top!
How about that, huh?
Gloria. Please. Stop laughing.
Ok. I expect another hate blog from BongV.
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ha ha ha. this post made my day.
This assumes that everything is constant and no other factors or variables are coming in the next few months.
Ang name na ibinigay mo ay medyo masakit sa tenga so gusto ko medyo maganda pakinggan kaya ang tawag ko dito ay Principle of equal regression… ha ha ha.
Pero kung sabagay, pede rin kasi sa long years ko working sa equity market, marami na ring recommendations and analysis akong nabasa at nakita using the theory of the morons. and Believe you me, there are a lot of morons out there who believe them…. ha ha ha
hahahaha….ang galing galing mo talaga Reyna! ~standing ovation~
hahahaha….pati si Gloria tuwang tuwa!
Akala ko ba matalino si Bong V. Tumitira din pala ng katol. Nakakaloka ang theory! Bwahahahaha
I bet he didn’t see that coming. Bwahahahaha
hahaha.. this post made my day.. haha.. nag-present pa sila ng computations, sablay naman.. hahahaha..
or yet another quote from Joseph Goebbles or anything from Nazi archives.
high five?
Hahahhaha….. yang ang sinasabing TREND ANALYSIS sa Descriptive Stat. Rule 1: pag nag-analyse ka dapat KASAMA lahat ng VARIABLES. This is to make your analysis VALID and RELIABLE (two of the most important qualities of an INTELLIGENT Statistical Study.) Sya, may klase pa ako –REMEDIAL class!
that’s soooo elementary HAHAHA
don’t worry ‘day, kung itutuloy ang trending na yan…si Noynoy ang mananalo.
Here’s how it would look like by March 2010:
Aquino : 12%
Villar : -17%
Estrada : -3%
Escudero : 9%
Teodoro : -2%
bwahaha theory of the moron indeed
SWAK!
Hay nako. Kulang sa Cerelac ang mga charlatan na iyon, Reynz.
Sakit sa pwet!
Great analysis Reynz!
Oh ano? Aral ka muna ulit kasi yung ng statistical analysis eh! You know them? Like the mean, the mode, the median, the survey sampling and t-testing. hahaha… ~_~ *peace to all mankind*
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